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Ayr Utd vs Arbroath — League Cup 2022

Ayr Utd
Ayr Utd
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Arbroath
Arbroath
G. Oakley 82'
J. Bonnar 74'
C. Main 49', 19'
7/19/2025League CupLeague Cup · Group Stage - 3Somerset Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Ayr Utd61%
×Draw21%
Arbroath18%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ayr Utd
2.04
Arbroath
1.02

Ayr Utd creates 100% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 12 away

creates per match

Ayr Utd
2.57
Arbroath
1.33

allows per match

Ayr Utd
0.71
Arbroath
1.50

finishing

Ayr Utd+0.00on par
Arbroath+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ayr Utd ↓

Arbroath →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Ayr Utd or draw
82%
Ayr Utd or Arbroath
79%
Draw or Arbroath
39%

Winning margin

Ayr Utd wins by 2+
37%
Arbroath wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Ayr Utd 1+ goals
87%
Ayr Utd 2+ goals
60%
Ayr Utd 3+ goals
33%
Arbroath 1+ goals
64%
Arbroath 2+ goals
27%
Arbroath 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Ayr Utd (draw refunded)
77%
Arbroath (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ayr Utd at home — creates 2.57, concedes 0.71 · 7 matches

Arbroath away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.50 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ayr Utd attack 2.57 + Arbroath defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 2.04

Arbroath attack 1.33 + Ayr Utd defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Ayr Utd scores more
61%
level
21%
Arbroath scores more
18%

Ayr Utd at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Ayr Utd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

1'
Craig Watson
19'
C. Main↳ D. Thomas
35'
Curtis Main
49'
C. Main↳ E. Walker
65'
G. Reilly← N. Todorov
65'
Trialist← R. Dow
66'
G. Oakley← C. Main
66'
J. Bonnar← D. Thomas
74'
R. Hickey← S. Stewart
74'
L. Kenny← T. O'Brien
74'
J. Bonnar↳ M. Rus
77'
L. Dick← S. McMann
77'
J. Hastie← J. Murphy
77'
D. Watret← N. McAllister
82'
A. Steele← A. Muirhead
82'
G. Oakley↳ E. Walker

Statistics

AyrArbroath
Discipline
1Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards0

Match Recap: Ayr Utd vs Arbroath

Ayr Utd beat Arbroath 4-0 in League Cup on July 19, 2025.

Goals: C. Main (19', 49'), J. Bonnar (74'), G. Oakley (82').

The match was played at Somerset Park in Ayr.