Ayr Utd 1–0 Annan Athletic: Result & Stats

Ayr Utd

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Annan Athletic

10/13/2020

League Cup · Group Stage - 4Somerset Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Ayr Utd78%

×Draw14%

Annan Athletic8%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ayr UtdExpected goals in this matchAnnan Athletic

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.84

0.84

Ayr Utd

2.84

Annan Athletic

0.84

Ayr Utd creates 238% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

2.69

creates per match

1.15

0.54

allows per match

3.00

creates per match

Ayr Utd

2.69

Annan Athletic

1.15

allows per match

Ayr Utd

0.54

Annan Athletic

3.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ayr Utd+0.00on par

Annan Athletic+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ayr Utd ↓

Annan Athletic →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–16%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–07%

4–16%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Ayr Utd or draw

92%

Ayr Utd or Annan Athletic

86%

Draw or Annan Athletic

22%

Winning margin

Ayr Utd wins by 2+

58%

Annan Athletic wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Ayr Utd 1+ goals

94%

Ayr Utd 2+ goals

77%

Ayr Utd 3+ goals

53%

Annan Athletic 1+ goals

57%

Annan Athletic 2+ goals

21%

Annan Athletic 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Ayr Utd (draw refunded)

90%

Annan Athletic (draw refunded)

10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ayr Utd at home — creates 2.69, concedes 0.54 · 13 matches

Annan Athletic away — creates 1.15, concedes 3.00 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ayr Utd attack 2.69 + Annan Athletic defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.84

Annan Athletic attack 1.15 + Ayr Utd defence 0.54 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

Ayr Utd scores more

78%

level

14%

Annan Athletic scores more

8%

Ayr Utd at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "Ayr Utd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff