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Ayr Utd vs Alloa Athletic — League Cup 2026

Ayr Utd
Ayr Utd
Preview
14:00
Alloa Athletic
Alloa Athletic
7/25/2026League CupLeague Cup · Group StageSomerset Park
Big match
62%
Ayr Utd
model favours
62%20%18%

Alloa Athletic score first in only 13% of matches

brightest fact of this match

2–1
likely score
64%
over 2.5 goals
59%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Ayr Utd62%
×Draw20%
Alloa Athletic18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ayr Utd
2.19
Alloa Athletic
1.11

Ayr Utd creates 97% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 15 away

creates per match

Ayr Utd
2.64
Alloa Athletic
1.73

allows per match

Ayr Utd
0.50
Alloa Athletic
1.73

finishing

Ayr Utd+0.00on par
Alloa Athletic+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ayr Utd ↓

Alloa Athletic →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Ayr Utd or draw
82%
Ayr Utd or Alloa Athletic
80%
Draw or Alloa Athletic
38%

Winning margin

Ayr Utd wins by 2+
39%
Alloa Athletic wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Ayr Utd 1+ goals
89%
Ayr Utd 2+ goals
64%
Ayr Utd 3+ goals
37%
Alloa Athletic 1+ goals
67%
Alloa Athletic 2+ goals
30%
Alloa Athletic 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Ayr Utd (draw refunded)
77%
Alloa Athletic (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ayr Utd at home — creates 2.64, concedes 0.50 · 14 matches

Alloa Athletic away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.73 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ayr Utd attack 2.64 + Alloa Athletic defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 2.19

Alloa Athletic attack 1.73 + Ayr Utd defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Ayr Utd scores more
62%
level
20%
Alloa Athletic scores more
18%

Ayr Utd at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Ayr Utd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 62% of Alloa Athletic’s goals come after the 75th minute
  • 73% of Alloa Athletic’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Ayr Utd have won 8 of the last 10 meetings
  • Ayr Utd sit 5, Alloa Athletic 31 in the table
  • Their last 10 meetings averaged 3.6 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Utd
WWWW
Athletic
DDLLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ayr Utd vs Alloa Athletic — Match Preview

Ayr Utd face Alloa Athletic on July 25, 2026 in this League Cup fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Ayr Utd host Alloa Athletic at Somerset Park.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.