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Ayr Utd vs Alloa Athletic — League Cup 2018

Ayr Utd
Ayr Utd
FT
6 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Alloa Athletic
Alloa Athletic
7/29/2023League CupLeague Cup · Group Stage - 7Somerset Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Ayr Utd61%
×Draw20%
Alloa Athletic19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ayr Utd
2.21
Alloa Athletic
1.14

Ayr Utd creates 94% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 15 away

creates per match

Ayr Utd
2.69
Alloa Athletic
1.73

allows per match

Ayr Utd
0.54
Alloa Athletic
1.73

finishing

Ayr Utd+0.00on par
Alloa Athletic+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ayr Utd ↓

Alloa Athletic →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Ayr Utd or draw
81%
Ayr Utd or Alloa Athletic
80%
Draw or Alloa Athletic
39%

Winning margin

Ayr Utd wins by 2+
39%
Alloa Athletic wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Ayr Utd 1+ goals
89%
Ayr Utd 2+ goals
65%
Ayr Utd 3+ goals
38%
Alloa Athletic 1+ goals
68%
Alloa Athletic 2+ goals
32%
Alloa Athletic 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Ayr Utd (draw refunded)
77%
Alloa Athletic (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ayr Utd at home — creates 2.69, concedes 0.54 · 13 matches

Alloa Athletic away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.73 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ayr Utd attack 2.69 + Alloa Athletic defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 2.21

Alloa Athletic attack 1.73 + Ayr Utd defence 0.54 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Ayr Utd scores more
61%
level
20%
Alloa Athletic scores more
19%

Ayr Utd at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Ayr Utd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ayr Utd vs Alloa Athletic

Ayr Utd beat Alloa Athletic 6-0 in League Cup on July 29, 2023.

The match was played at Somerset Park in Ayr.