Ayr Utd 3–3 Alloa Athletic: Result & Stats

Ayr Utd

FT

3 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Alloa Athletic

L. Shankland 90+4', 4'

J. Adams 80'

S. Taggart 84' (pen)

K. Cawley 61'

C. Reid 36' (OG)

9/16/2017

League #183 · Round 6Somerset Park (Ayr)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Ayr Utd50%

×Draw21%

Alloa Athletic29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ayr UtdExpected goals in this matchAlloa Athletic

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.15

1.60

Ayr Utd

2.15

Alloa Athletic

1.60

Ayr Utd creates 34% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 32 away

2.67

creates per match

1.53

1.67

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Ayr Utd

2.67

Alloa Athletic

1.53

allows per match

Ayr Utd

1.67

Alloa Athletic

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ayr Utd+0.00on par

Alloa Athletic+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ayr Utd ↓

Alloa Athletic →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Ayr Utd or draw

71%

Ayr Utd or Alloa Athletic

79%

Draw or Alloa Athletic

50%

Winning margin

Ayr Utd wins by 2+

30%

Alloa Athletic wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Ayr Utd 1+ goals

88%

Ayr Utd 2+ goals

63%

Ayr Utd 3+ goals

36%

Alloa Athletic 1+ goals

80%

Alloa Athletic 2+ goals

47%

Alloa Athletic 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Ayr Utd (draw refunded)

63%

Alloa Athletic (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ayr Utd at home — creates 2.67, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

Alloa Athletic away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.63 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ayr Utd attack 2.67 + Alloa Athletic defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 2.15

Alloa Athletic attack 1.53 + Ayr Utd defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Ayr Utd scores more

50%

level

21%

Alloa Athletic scores more

29%

Ayr Utd at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Ayr Utd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

L. Shankland

36'

C. ReidOwn goal

61'

K. Cawley

68'

L. Murphy← C. McGuffie

72'

A. Martin← J. Robertson

73'

C. Malcolm← K. Renton

74'

B. Gilmour← R. Docherty

80'

J. Adams

84'

S. TaggartPenalty

86'

C. Crane← G. Fleming

90+4'

L. Shankland

Ayr

Alloa

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

🥅

⚽

▼

▼

⚽2

Manager: I. McCall

68'▲L. Murphy←▼C. McGuffie

74'▲B. Gilmour←▼R. Docherty

Ayr Utd substitutes

MurphyGilmourWaiteAvciMcCowan

Manager: J. Goodwin

72'▲A. Martin←▼J. Robertson

73'▲C. Malcolm←▼K. Renton

86'▲C. Crane←▼G. Fleming

Alloa Athletic substitutes

MartinMalcolmCraneCookWilson