Aymorés 1–1 Uberaba: Result & Stats | Mineiro - 2

Aymorés

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Uberaba

6/6/2022

Mineiro - 2 · Round 10Estádio Afonso de Carvalho

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Aymorés49%

×Draw28%

Uberaba24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AymorésExpected goals in this matchUberaba

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

0.87

Aymorés

1.38

Uberaba

0.87

Aymorés creates 59% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 17 away

1.41

creates per match

1.00

0.74

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Aymorés

1.41

Uberaba

1.00

allows per match

Aymorés

0.74

Uberaba

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Aymorés+0.00on par

Uberaba+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aymorés ↓

Uberaba →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Aymorés or draw

76%

Aymorés or Uberaba

72%

Draw or Uberaba

51%

Winning margin

Aymorés wins by 2+

24%

Uberaba wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Aymorés 1+ goals

75%

Aymorés 2+ goals

40%

Aymorés 3+ goals

16%

Uberaba 1+ goals

58%

Uberaba 2+ goals

22%

Uberaba 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Aymorés (draw refunded)

67%

Uberaba (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aymorés at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.74 · 34 matches

Uberaba away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.35 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aymorés attack 1.41 + Uberaba defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.38

Uberaba attack 1.00 + Aymorés defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Aymorés scores more

49%

level

28%

Uberaba scores more

24%

Aymorés at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Aymorés will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff