Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Aymorés vs North Esporte — Mineiro - 2 2026

Aymorés
Aymorés
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
North Esporte
North Esporte
Unknown 90+3', 15', 9'
Unknown 84'
7/6/2024Mineiro - 2Mineiro - 2 · 2nd Phase - 2Estádio Afonso de Carvalho

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Aymorés45%
×Draw31%
North Esporte24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aymorés
1.16
North Esporte
0.75

Aymorés creates 55% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 21 away

creates per match

Aymorés
1.41
North Esporte
0.76

allows per match

Aymorés
0.74
North Esporte
0.90

finishing

Aymorés+0.00on par
North Esporte+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 70Over: 3070%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 64Yes: 3664%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aymorés ↓

North Esporte →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Aymorés or draw
76%
Aymorés or North Esporte
69%
Draw or North Esporte
55%

Winning margin

Aymorés wins by 2+
20%
North Esporte wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Aymorés 1+ goals
69%
Aymorés 2+ goals
32%
Aymorés 3+ goals
11%
North Esporte 1+ goals
53%
North Esporte 2+ goals
17%
North Esporte 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Aymorés (draw refunded)
66%
North Esporte (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aymorés at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.74 · 34 matches

North Esporte away — creates 0.76, concedes 0.90 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aymorés attack 1.41 + North Esporte defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.16

North Esporte attack 0.76 + Aymorés defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Aymorés scores more
45%
level
31%
North Esporte scores more
24%

Aymorés at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Aymorés will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'
15'
84'
90+3'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Mineiro - 2: Aymorés 3–1 North Esporte

Aymorés beat North Esporte 3-1 in Mineiro - 2 on July 6, 2024.

Goals: ? (9', 15', 84', 90+3').

The match was played at Estádio Afonso de Carvalho in Ubá, Minas Gerais.