Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Aymorés vs Itabirito — Mineiro - 2 2026

Aymorés
Aymorés
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Itabirito
Itabirito
Unknown 90+10'
Unknown 38', 16'
6/17/2023Mineiro - 2Mineiro - 2 · Round 11Estádio Afonso de Carvalho

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Aymorés42%
×Draw27%
Itabirito30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aymorés
1.34
Itabirito
1.09

Aymorés creates 23% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 11 away

creates per match

Aymorés
1.41
Itabirito
1.45

allows per match

Aymorés
0.74
Itabirito
1.27

finishing

Aymorés+0.00on par
Itabirito+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 56Over: 4456%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 51Yes: 4951%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aymorés ↓

Itabirito →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Aymorés or draw
70%
Aymorés or Itabirito
73%
Draw or Itabirito
58%

Winning margin

Aymorés wins by 2+
20%
Itabirito wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Aymorés 1+ goals
74%
Aymorés 2+ goals
39%
Aymorés 3+ goals
15%
Itabirito 1+ goals
66%
Itabirito 2+ goals
30%
Itabirito 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Aymorés (draw refunded)
58%
Itabirito (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aymorés at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.74 · 34 matches

Itabirito away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.27 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aymorés attack 1.41 + Itabirito defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.34

Itabirito attack 1.45 + Aymorés defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Aymorés scores more
42%
level
27%
Itabirito scores more
30%

Aymorés at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Aymorés will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'
38'
90+10'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Mineiro - 2: Aymorés 1–2 Itabirito

Itabirito beat Aymorés 2-1 in Mineiro - 2 on June 17, 2023.

Goals: ? (16', 38', 90+10').

The match was played at Estádio Afonso de Carvalho in Ubá, Minas Gerais.