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Aymorés vs Guarani MG — Mineiro - 2 2026

Aymorés
Aymorés
FT
0 – 2
Guarani MG
Guarani MG
7/31/2021Mineiro - 2Mineiro - 2 · Round 6Estádio Afonso de Carvalho

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Aymorés47%
×Draw29%
Guarani MG24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aymorés
1.28
Guarani MG
0.84

Aymorés creates 52% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 20 away

creates per match

Aymorés
1.41
Guarani MG
0.95

allows per match

Aymorés
0.74
Guarani MG
1.15

finishing

Aymorés+0.00on par
Guarani MG+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 64Over: 3664%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 59Yes: 4159%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aymorés ↓

Guarani MG →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Aymorés or draw
76%
Aymorés or Guarani MG
71%
Draw or Guarani MG
53%

Winning margin

Aymorés wins by 2+
21%
Guarani MG wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Aymorés 1+ goals
72%
Aymorés 2+ goals
37%
Aymorés 3+ goals
14%
Guarani MG 1+ goals
57%
Guarani MG 2+ goals
21%
Guarani MG 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Aymorés (draw refunded)
66%
Guarani MG (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aymorés at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.74 · 34 matches

Guarani MG away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.15 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aymorés attack 1.41 + Guarani MG defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.28

Guarani MG attack 0.95 + Aymorés defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Aymorés scores more
47%
level
29%
Guarani MG scores more
24%

Aymorés at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Aymorés will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Aymorés vs Guarani MG

Guarani MG beat Aymorés 2-0 in Mineiro - 2 on July 31, 2021.

The match was played at Estádio Afonso de Carvalho in Ubá, Minas Gerais.