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Aymorés vs BOA — Mineiro - 2 2026

Aymorés
Aymorésadvanced
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
BOA
BOA
Bruninho 45'
Gilvan 21'
7/18/2026Mineiro - 2Mineiro - 2 · Quarter-finals

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Aymorés50%
×Draw29%
BOA21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aymorés
1.30
BOA
0.74

Aymorés creates 76% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 32 away

creates per match

Aymorés
1.41
BOA
0.75

allows per match

Aymorés
0.74
BOA
1.19

finishing

Aymorés+0.00on par
BOA+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 67Over: 3367%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 62Yes: 3862%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aymorés ↓

BOA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Aymorés or draw
79%
Aymorés or BOA
71%
Draw or BOA
50%

Winning margin

Aymorés wins by 2+
23%
BOA wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Aymorés 1+ goals
73%
Aymorés 2+ goals
37%
Aymorés 3+ goals
14%
BOA 1+ goals
52%
BOA 2+ goals
17%
BOA 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Aymorés (draw refunded)
70%
BOA (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aymorés at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.74 · 34 matches

BOA away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.19 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aymorés attack 1.41 + BOA defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.30

BOA attack 0.75 + Aymorés defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Aymorés scores more
50%
level
29%
BOA scores more
21%

Aymorés at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Aymorés will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'
Gilvan
45'
Bruninho

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Aymorés vs BOA

Aymorés beat BOA 2-0 in Mineiro - 2 on July 18, 2026.

Goals: Gilvan (21'), Bruninho (45').