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Aylesbury United vs Enfield 1893 — League #933 2026

Aylesbury United
Aylesbury United
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Enfield 1893
Enfield 1893
4/26/2025League #933League #933 · Southern Central - 42The Meadow

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Aylesbury United59%
×Draw19%
Enfield 189322%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aylesbury United
2.46
Enfield 1893
1.47

Aylesbury United creates 67% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

creates per match

Aylesbury United
2.60
Enfield 1893
1.33

allows per match

Aylesbury United
1.60
Enfield 1893
2.33

finishing

Aylesbury United+0.00on par
Enfield 1893+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aylesbury United ↓

Enfield 1893 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Aylesbury United or draw
78%
Aylesbury United or Enfield 1893
81%
Draw or Enfield 1893
41%

Winning margin

Aylesbury United wins by 2+
38%
Enfield 1893 wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Aylesbury United 1+ goals
91%
Aylesbury United 2+ goals
70%
Aylesbury United 3+ goals
44%
Enfield 1893 1+ goals
77%
Enfield 1893 2+ goals
43%
Enfield 1893 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Aylesbury United (draw refunded)
73%
Enfield 1893 (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aylesbury United at home — creates 2.60, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

Enfield 1893 away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aylesbury United attack 2.60 + Enfield 1893 defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.46

Enfield 1893 attack 1.33 + Aylesbury United defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Aylesbury United scores more
59%
level
19%
Enfield 1893 scores more
22%

Aylesbury United at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Aylesbury United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #933: Aylesbury United 2–2 Enfield 1893

Aylesbury United and Enfield 1893 drew 2-2 in League #933 on April 26, 2025.

The match was played at The Meadow in Chesham, Buckinghamshire.