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Ayema vs Police — Championnat National 2019

Ayema
Ayema
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Police
Police
10/26/2024Championnat NationalChampionnat National · Group B - 5Stade de Pobè

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Ayema54%
×Draw27%
Police19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ayema
1.43
Police
0.73

Ayema creates 96% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 74 away

creates per match

Ayema
1.27
Police
0.85

allows per match

Ayema
0.61
Police
1.59

finishing

Ayema+0.00on par
Police+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ayema ↓

Police →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Ayema or draw
81%
Ayema or Police
73%
Draw or Police
46%

Winning margin

Ayema wins by 2+
27%
Police wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Ayema 1+ goals
76%
Ayema 2+ goals
42%
Ayema 3+ goals
17%
Police 1+ goals
52%
Police 2+ goals
17%
Police 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Ayema (draw refunded)
74%
Police (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ayema at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.61 · 119 matches

Police away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.59 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ayema attack 1.27 + Police defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.43

Police attack 0.85 + Ayema defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Ayema scores more
54%
level
27%
Police scores more
19%

Ayema at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Ayema will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ayema vs Police

Ayema and Police drew 1-1 in Championnat National on October 26, 2024.

The match was played at Stade de Pobè in Pobè.