Ayema 2–0 Etoile Filante: Result & Stats

Ayema

FT

2 – 0

Etoile Filante

5/18/2025

Championnat National · Group B - 31Stade de Pobè

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Ayema55%

×Draw29%

Etoile Filante16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AyemaExpected goals in this matchEtoile Filante

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

0.56

Ayema

1.29

Etoile Filante

0.56

Ayema creates 130% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 29 away

1.27

creates per match

0.52

0.61

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Ayema

1.27

Etoile Filante

0.52

allows per match

Ayema

0.61

Etoile Filante

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ayema+0.00on par

Etoile Filante+0.00on par

Total goals

Under72
Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No69
Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ayema ↓

Etoile Filante →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–19%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–020%

1–111%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–17%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

55%45%2.5

28%72%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Ayema or draw

84%

Ayema or Etoile Filante

71%

Draw or Etoile Filante

45%

Winning margin

Ayema wins by 2+

26%

Etoile Filante wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Ayema 1+ goals

72%

Ayema 2+ goals

37%

Ayema 3+ goals

14%

Etoile Filante 1+ goals

43%

Etoile Filante 2+ goals

11%

Etoile Filante 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Ayema (draw refunded)

77%

Etoile Filante (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

20%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ayema at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.61 · 119 matches

Etoile Filante away — creates 0.52, concedes 1.31 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ayema attack 1.27 + Etoile Filante defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.29

Etoile Filante attack 0.52 + Ayema defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Ayema scores more

55%

level

29%

Etoile Filante scores more

16%

Ayema at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Ayema will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff