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Ayema vs Energie — Championnat National 2019

Ayema
Ayema
FT
1 – 1
Energie
Energie
1/18/2020Championnat NationalChampionnat National · Round 14Stade Municipal de Missérété

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Ayema51%
×Draw30%
Energie19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ayema
1.23
Energie
0.63

Ayema creates 95% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 56 away

creates per match

Ayema
1.27
Energie
0.64

allows per match

Ayema
0.61
Energie
1.20

finishing

Ayema+0.00on par
Energie+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ayema ↓

Energie →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–110%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Ayema or draw
81%
Ayema or Energie
70%
Draw or Energie
49%

Winning margin

Ayema wins by 2+
23%
Energie wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Ayema 1+ goals
71%
Ayema 2+ goals
35%
Ayema 3+ goals
13%
Energie 1+ goals
47%
Energie 2+ goals
13%
Energie 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Ayema (draw refunded)
73%
Energie (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ayema at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.61 · 119 matches

Energie away — creates 0.64, concedes 1.20 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ayema attack 1.27 + Energie defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.23

Energie attack 0.64 + Ayema defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Ayema scores more
51%
level
30%
Energie scores more
19%

Ayema at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Ayema will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Championnat National: Ayema 1–1 Energie

Ayema and Energie drew 1-1 in Championnat National on January 18, 2020.

The match was played at Stade Municipal de Missérété in Akpo-Missérété.