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Ayema vs Coton Sport Ouidah — Championnat National 2019

Ayema
Ayema
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Coton Sport Ouidah
Coton Sport Ouidah
10/12/2025Championnat NationalChampionnat National · Round 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

Ayema37%
×Draw32%
Coton Sport Ouidah31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ayema
1.00
Coton Sport Ouidah
0.89

Ayema creates 12% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 94 away

creates per match

Ayema
1.27
Coton Sport Ouidah
1.16

allows per match

Ayema
0.61
Coton Sport Ouidah
0.73

finishing

Ayema+0.00on par
Coton Sport Ouidah+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ayema ↓

Coton Sport Ouidah →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Ayema or draw
69%
Ayema or Coton Sport Ouidah
68%
Draw or Coton Sport Ouidah
63%

Winning margin

Ayema wins by 2+
14%
Coton Sport Ouidah wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Ayema 1+ goals
63%
Ayema 2+ goals
26%
Ayema 3+ goals
8%
Coton Sport Ouidah 1+ goals
59%
Coton Sport Ouidah 2+ goals
22%
Coton Sport Ouidah 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Ayema (draw refunded)
54%
Coton Sport Ouidah (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ayema at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.61 · 119 matches

Coton Sport Ouidah away — creates 1.16, concedes 0.73 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ayema attack 1.27 + Coton Sport Ouidah defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 1.00

Coton Sport Ouidah attack 1.16 + Ayema defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Ayema scores more
37%
level
32%
Coton Sport Ouidah scores more
31%

Ayema at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Ayema will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Championnat National: Ayema 0–0 Coton Sport Ouidah

Ayema and Coton Sport Ouidah drew 0-0 in Championnat National on October 12, 2025.