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Ayamonte vs Córdoba II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Ayamonte
Ayamonte
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Córdoba II
Córdoba II
4/21/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 30Estadio Blas Infante

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Ayamonte37%
×Draw27%
Córdoba II35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ayamonte
1.25
Córdoba II
1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 32 home / 110 away

creates per match

Ayamonte
1.16
Córdoba II
1.13

allows per match

Ayamonte
1.28
Córdoba II
1.34

finishing

Ayamonte+0.00on par
Córdoba II+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ayamonte ↓

Córdoba II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Ayamonte or draw
65%
Ayamonte or Córdoba II
73%
Draw or Córdoba II
63%

Winning margin

Ayamonte wins by 2+
16%
Córdoba II wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Ayamonte 1+ goals
71%
Ayamonte 2+ goals
36%
Ayamonte 3+ goals
13%
Córdoba II 1+ goals
70%
Córdoba II 2+ goals
34%
Córdoba II 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Ayamonte (draw refunded)
51%
Córdoba II (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ayamonte at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.28 · 32 matches

Córdoba II away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.34 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ayamonte attack 1.16 + Córdoba II defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.25

Córdoba II attack 1.13 + Ayamonte defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Ayamonte scores more
37%
level
27%
Córdoba II scores more
35%

Ayamonte at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Ayamonte will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ayamonte vs Córdoba II

Ayamonte beat Córdoba II 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on April 21, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Blas Infante in Ayamonte.