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Ayamonte vs Ciudad de Lucena — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Ayamonte
Ayamonte
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Ciudad de Lucena
Ciudad de Lucena
4/1/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 28Estadio Ciudad de Ayamonte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Ayamonte32%
×Draw29%
Ciudad de Lucena39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ayamonte
1.03
Ciudad de Lucena
1.17

Ciudad de Lucena creates 14% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 110 away

creates per match

Ayamonte
1.16
Ciudad de Lucena
1.06

allows per match

Ayamonte
1.28
Ciudad de Lucena
0.90

finishing

Ayamonte+0.00on par
Ciudad de Lucena+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ayamonte ↓

Ciudad de Lucena →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Ayamonte or draw
61%
Ayamonte or Ciudad de Lucena
71%
Draw or Ciudad de Lucena
68%

Winning margin

Ayamonte wins by 2+
12%
Ciudad de Lucena wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Ayamonte 1+ goals
64%
Ayamonte 2+ goals
28%
Ayamonte 3+ goals
9%
Ciudad de Lucena 1+ goals
69%
Ciudad de Lucena 2+ goals
33%
Ciudad de Lucena 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Ayamonte (draw refunded)
45%
Ciudad de Lucena (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ayamonte at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.28 · 32 matches

Ciudad de Lucena away — creates 1.06, concedes 0.90 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ayamonte attack 1.16 + Ciudad de Lucena defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.03

Ciudad de Lucena attack 1.06 + Ayamonte defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Ayamonte scores more
32%
level
29%
Ciudad de Lucena scores more
39%

Ciudad de Lucena at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Ciudad de Lucena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ayamonte vs Ciudad de Lucena

Ayamonte and Ciudad de Lucena drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on April 1, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Ciudad de Ayamonte in Ayamonte.