Ayamonte 2–0 Bollullos: Result & Stats

Ayamonte

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Bollullos

9/25/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 3Estadio Ciudad de Ayamonte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Ayamonte40%

×Draw28%

Bollullos32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AyamonteExpected goals in this matchBollullos

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.26

1.08

Ayamonte

1.26

Bollullos

1.08

Ayamonte creates 17% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 67 away

1.16

creates per match

0.88

1.28

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Ayamonte

1.16

Bollullos

0.88

allows per match

Ayamonte

1.28

Bollullos

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ayamonte+0.00on par

Bollullos+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ayamonte ↓

Bollullos →

0–010%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Ayamonte or draw

68%

Ayamonte or Bollullos

72%

Draw or Bollullos

60%

Winning margin

Ayamonte wins by 2+

18%

Bollullos wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Ayamonte 1+ goals

72%

Ayamonte 2+ goals

36%

Ayamonte 3+ goals

13%

Bollullos 1+ goals

66%

Bollullos 2+ goals

29%

Bollullos 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Ayamonte (draw refunded)

56%

Bollullos (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Ayamonte at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.28 · 32 matches

Bollullos away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.36 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Ayamonte attack 1.16 + Bollullos defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.26

Bollullos attack 0.88 + Ayamonte defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 40%?"

Ayamonte scores more

40%

level

28%

Bollullos scores more

32%

Ayamonte at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Ayamonte will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff