Ayacucho FC 0–1 Union Huaral: Result & Stats

Ayacucho FC

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Union Huaral

5/20/2023

Segunda División · Round 6Estadio El Libertador

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Ayacucho FC41%

×Draw25%

Union Huaral33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ayacucho FCExpected goals in this matchUnion Huaral

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

1.29

Ayacucho FC

1.47

Union Huaral

1.29

Ayacucho FC creates 14% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 66 away

1.30

creates per match

1.32

1.27

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Ayacucho FC

1.30

Union Huaral

1.32

allows per match

Ayacucho FC

1.27

Union Huaral

1.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ayacucho FC+0.00on par

Union Huaral+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ayacucho FC ↓

Union Huaral →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Ayacucho FC or draw

67%

Ayacucho FC or Union Huaral

75%

Draw or Union Huaral

59%

Winning margin

Ayacucho FC wins by 2+

20%

Union Huaral wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Ayacucho FC 1+ goals

77%

Ayacucho FC 2+ goals

43%

Ayacucho FC 3+ goals

18%

Union Huaral 1+ goals

72%

Union Huaral 2+ goals

37%

Union Huaral 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Ayacucho FC (draw refunded)

55%

Union Huaral (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ayacucho FC at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.27 · 30 matches

Union Huaral away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.64 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ayacucho FC attack 1.30 + Union Huaral defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.47

Union Huaral attack 1.32 + Ayacucho FC defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Ayacucho FC scores more

41%

level

25%

Union Huaral scores more

33%

Ayacucho FC at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Ayacucho FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff