Ayacucho FC 2–0 Sport Rosario: Result & Stats

Ayacucho FC

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Sport Rosario

7/31/2018

Primera División · Apertura - 10Estadio Ciudad de Cumaná

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Ayacucho FC56%

×Draw23%

Sport Rosario21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ayacucho FCExpected goals in this matchSport Rosario

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.84

1.03

Ayacucho FC

1.84

Sport Rosario

1.03

Ayacucho FC creates 79% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 22 away

1.54

creates per match

0.82

1.24

allows per match

2.14

creates per match

Ayacucho FC

1.54

Sport Rosario

0.82

allows per match

Ayacucho FC

1.24

Sport Rosario

2.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ayacucho FC+0.00on par

Sport Rosario+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ayacucho FC ↓

Sport Rosario →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Ayacucho FC or draw

79%

Ayacucho FC or Sport Rosario

77%

Draw or Sport Rosario

44%

Winning margin

Ayacucho FC wins by 2+

32%

Sport Rosario wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Ayacucho FC 1+ goals

84%

Ayacucho FC 2+ goals

55%

Ayacucho FC 3+ goals

28%

Sport Rosario 1+ goals

64%

Sport Rosario 2+ goals

28%

Sport Rosario 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Ayacucho FC (draw refunded)

73%

Sport Rosario (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ayacucho FC at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.24 · 100 matches

Sport Rosario away — creates 0.82, concedes 2.14 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ayacucho FC attack 1.54 + Sport Rosario defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.84

Sport Rosario attack 0.82 + Ayacucho FC defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Ayacucho FC scores more

56%

level

23%

Sport Rosario scores more

21%

Ayacucho FC at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Ayacucho FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff