Ayacucho FC vs Juan Pablo II College — Segunda División 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 12+ matches
Ayacucho FC42%
Juan Pablo II College29%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Ayacucho FC creates 27% more chances
Season form · 30 home / 12 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under62
- Over38
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No56
- Yes44
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Ayacucho FC ↓
Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Ayacucho FC at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.27 · 30 matches
Juan Pablo II College away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.17 · 12 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Ayacucho FC attack 1.30 + Juan Pablo II College defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.23
Juan Pablo II College attack 0.67 + Ayacucho FC defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 0.97
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 42%?"
Ayacucho FC at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 42% does not mean "Ayacucho FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Head to Head
4 previous meetings · small sample
Union Comercio
Deportivo Llacuabamba
UCV Moquegua
Comerciantes
Molinos El Pirata
Bentín Tacna Heroica
Santos
Cesar Vallejo
FC Cajamarca
Carlos A. Mannucci
U. San Martin
Deportiva Agropecuaria
Academia Cantolao
Deportivo Coopsol
Alianza Universidad
Sport Huancayo 2Ayacucho FC
Estudiantil CNI
Minas
Deportivo Binacional
San MarcosIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Ayacucho FC host Juan Pablo II College on Friday, 27 September 2024 at 20:15. The match is part of the Segunda División 2026/2027 season.
Ayacucho FC 1 – 2 Juan Pablo II College
Juan Pablo II College beat Ayacucho FC 2-1 in Segunda División on September 27, 2024.
Goals: R. Alfani (6'), N. Rodríguez (49'), M. Ríos (80').
The match was played at Estadio Ciudad de Cumaná in Ayacucho.