Ayacucho FC 2–0 Deportivo Municipal: Result & Stats

Ayacucho FC

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Deportivo Municipal

10/12/2019

Primera División · Clausura - 11Estadio Ciudad de Cumaná

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 100+ matches

Ayacucho FC46%

×Draw24%

Deportivo Municipal29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ayacucho FCExpected goals in this matchDeportivo Municipal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

1.25

Ayacucho FC

1.64

Deportivo Municipal

1.25

Ayacucho FC creates 31% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 102 away

1.54

creates per match

1.25

1.24

allows per match

1.73

creates per match

Ayacucho FC

1.54

Deportivo Municipal

1.25

allows per match

Ayacucho FC

1.24

Deportivo Municipal

1.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ayacucho FC+0.00on par

Deportivo Municipal+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ayacucho FC ↓

Deportivo Municipal →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Ayacucho FC or draw

71%

Ayacucho FC or Deportivo Municipal

76%

Draw or Deportivo Municipal

54%

Winning margin

Ayacucho FC wins by 2+

24%

Deportivo Municipal wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Ayacucho FC 1+ goals

81%

Ayacucho FC 2+ goals

49%

Ayacucho FC 3+ goals

23%

Deportivo Municipal 1+ goals

71%

Deportivo Municipal 2+ goals

36%

Deportivo Municipal 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Ayacucho FC (draw refunded)

61%

Deportivo Municipal (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ayacucho FC at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.24 · 100 matches

Deportivo Municipal away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.73 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ayacucho FC attack 1.54 + Deportivo Municipal defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.64

Deportivo Municipal attack 1.25 + Ayacucho FC defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Ayacucho FC scores more

46%

level

24%

Deportivo Municipal scores more

29%

Ayacucho FC at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Ayacucho FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff