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Ayacucho FC vs Deportivo Coopsol — Segunda División 2018

Ayacucho FC
Ayacucho FC
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Deportivo Coopsol
Deportivo Coopsol
7/12/2023Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 14Estadio El Libertador

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Ayacucho FC42%
×Draw26%
Deportivo Coopsol32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ayacucho FC
1.46
Deportivo Coopsol
1.23

Ayacucho FC creates 19% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 91 away

creates per match

Ayacucho FC
1.30
Deportivo Coopsol
1.18

allows per match

Ayacucho FC
1.27
Deportivo Coopsol
1.63

finishing

Ayacucho FC+0.00on par
Deportivo Coopsol+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ayacucho FC ↓

Deportivo Coopsol →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Ayacucho FC or draw
68%
Ayacucho FC or Deportivo Coopsol
74%
Draw or Deportivo Coopsol
58%

Winning margin

Ayacucho FC wins by 2+
20%
Deportivo Coopsol wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Ayacucho FC 1+ goals
77%
Ayacucho FC 2+ goals
43%
Ayacucho FC 3+ goals
18%
Deportivo Coopsol 1+ goals
71%
Deportivo Coopsol 2+ goals
35%
Deportivo Coopsol 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Ayacucho FC (draw refunded)
57%
Deportivo Coopsol (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ayacucho FC at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.27 · 30 matches

Deportivo Coopsol away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.63 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ayacucho FC attack 1.30 + Deportivo Coopsol defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.46

Deportivo Coopsol attack 1.18 + Ayacucho FC defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Ayacucho FC scores more
42%
level
26%
Deportivo Coopsol scores more
32%

Ayacucho FC at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Ayacucho FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ayacucho FC vs Deportivo Coopsol

Ayacucho FC and Deportivo Coopsol drew 0-0 in Segunda División on July 12, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio El Libertador in Ayacucho.