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Axiopolis vs Voluntari II — Liga III - Serie 3 2020

Axiopolis
Axiopolis
FT
1 – 2
Voluntari II
Voluntari II
3/23/2024Liga III - Serie 3Liga III - Serie 3 · Group 3 - 18Stadionul Ideal Cernavodă

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Axiopolis54%
×Draw21%
Voluntari II25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Axiopolis
2.19
Voluntari II
1.46

Axiopolis creates 50% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 43 away

creates per match

Axiopolis
1.90
Voluntari II
1.33

allows per match

Axiopolis
1.59
Voluntari II
2.47

finishing

Axiopolis+0.00on par
Voluntari II+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Axiopolis ↓

Voluntari II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Axiopolis or draw
75%
Axiopolis or Voluntari II
79%
Draw or Voluntari II
46%

Winning margin

Axiopolis wins by 2+
33%
Voluntari II wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Axiopolis 1+ goals
89%
Axiopolis 2+ goals
64%
Axiopolis 3+ goals
37%
Voluntari II 1+ goals
77%
Voluntari II 2+ goals
43%
Voluntari II 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Axiopolis (draw refunded)
68%
Voluntari II (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Axiopolis at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.59 · 51 matches

Voluntari II away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.47 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Axiopolis attack 1.90 + Voluntari II defence 2.47 → ÷2 → 2.19

Voluntari II attack 1.33 + Axiopolis defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Axiopolis scores more
54%
level
21%
Voluntari II scores more
25%

Axiopolis at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Axiopolis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga III - Serie 3: Axiopolis 1–2 Voluntari II

Voluntari II beat Axiopolis 2-1 in Liga III - Serie 3 on March 23, 2024.

The match was played at Stadionul Ideal Cernavodă in Cernavodă.