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Axiopolis vs Gloria Băneasa — Liga III - Serie 3 2020

Axiopolis
Axiopolis
FT
1 – 5
HT: 0 – 1
Gloria Băneasa
Gloria Băneasa
10/18/2025Liga III - Serie 3Liga III - Serie 3 · Group 3 - 9Stadionul Ideal Cernavodă

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Axiopolis46%
×Draw22%
Gloria Băneasa32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Axiopolis
1.90
Gloria Băneasa
1.57

Axiopolis creates 21% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 56 away

creates per match

Axiopolis
1.90
Gloria Băneasa
1.55

allows per match

Axiopolis
1.59
Gloria Băneasa
1.89

finishing

Axiopolis+0.00on par
Gloria Băneasa+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Axiopolis ↓

Gloria Băneasa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Axiopolis or draw
68%
Axiopolis or Gloria Băneasa
78%
Draw or Gloria Băneasa
54%

Winning margin

Axiopolis wins by 2+
25%
Gloria Băneasa wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Axiopolis 1+ goals
85%
Axiopolis 2+ goals
56%
Axiopolis 3+ goals
29%
Gloria Băneasa 1+ goals
79%
Gloria Băneasa 2+ goals
46%
Gloria Băneasa 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Axiopolis (draw refunded)
59%
Gloria Băneasa (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Axiopolis at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.59 · 51 matches

Gloria Băneasa away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.89 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Axiopolis attack 1.90 + Gloria Băneasa defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.90

Gloria Băneasa attack 1.55 + Axiopolis defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Axiopolis scores more
46%
level
22%
Gloria Băneasa scores more
32%

Axiopolis at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Axiopolis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga III - Serie 3: Axiopolis 1–5 Gloria Băneasa

Gloria Băneasa beat Axiopolis 5-1 in Liga III - Serie 3 on October 18, 2025.

The match was played at Stadionul Ideal Cernavodă in Cernavodă.