Axiopolis 1–5 CS Afumati: Result & Stats

Axiopolis

FT

1 – 5

HT: 1 – 2

CS Afumati

11/4/2023

Liga III - Serie 3 · Group 3 - 11Stadionul Ideal Cernavodă

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Axiopolis22%

×Draw20%

CS Afumati58%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AxiopolisExpected goals in this matchCS Afumati

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

2.18

Axiopolis

1.28

CS Afumati

2.18

CS Afumati creates 70% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 35 away

1.90

creates per match

2.77

1.59

allows per match

0.66

creates per match

Axiopolis

1.90

CS Afumati

2.77

allows per match

Axiopolis

1.59

CS Afumati

0.66

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Axiopolis+0.00on par

CS Afumati+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Axiopolis ↓

CS Afumati →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–17%

0–28%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Axiopolis or draw

42%

Axiopolis or CS Afumati

80%

Draw or CS Afumati

78%

Winning margin

Axiopolis wins by 2+

9%

CS Afumati wins by 2+

35%

Team goals

Axiopolis 1+ goals

72%

Axiopolis 2+ goals

37%

Axiopolis 3+ goals

14%

CS Afumati 1+ goals

89%

CS Afumati 2+ goals

64%

CS Afumati 3+ goals

37%

Draw no bet

Axiopolis (draw refunded)

28%

CS Afumati (draw refunded)

72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Axiopolis at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.59 · 51 matches

CS Afumati away — creates 2.77, concedes 0.66 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Axiopolis attack 1.90 + CS Afumati defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 1.28

CS Afumati attack 2.77 + Axiopolis defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 2.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Axiopolis scores more

22%

level

20%

CS Afumati scores more

58%

CS Afumati at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "CS Afumati will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff