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Axiopolis vs Agricola Borcea — Liga III - Serie 3 2020

Axiopolis
Axiopolis
FT
5 – 1
Agricola Borcea
Agricola Borcea
4/18/2025Liga III - Serie 3Liga III - Serie 3 · Group 3 - 2nd Phase - 5Stadionul Ideal Cernavodă

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Axiopolis47%
×Draw21%
Agricola Borcea31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Axiopolis
2.03
Agricola Borcea
1.63

Axiopolis creates 25% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 62 away

creates per match

Axiopolis
1.90
Agricola Borcea
1.66

allows per match

Axiopolis
1.59
Agricola Borcea
2.16

finishing

Axiopolis+0.00on par
Agricola Borcea+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Axiopolis ↓

Agricola Borcea →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Axiopolis or draw
69%
Axiopolis or Agricola Borcea
79%
Draw or Agricola Borcea
53%

Winning margin

Axiopolis wins by 2+
27%
Agricola Borcea wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Axiopolis 1+ goals
87%
Axiopolis 2+ goals
60%
Axiopolis 3+ goals
33%
Agricola Borcea 1+ goals
80%
Agricola Borcea 2+ goals
48%
Agricola Borcea 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Axiopolis (draw refunded)
60%
Agricola Borcea (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Axiopolis at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.59 · 51 matches

Agricola Borcea away — creates 1.66, concedes 2.16 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Axiopolis attack 1.90 + Agricola Borcea defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 2.03

Agricola Borcea attack 1.66 + Axiopolis defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Axiopolis scores more
47%
level
21%
Agricola Borcea scores more
31%

Axiopolis at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Axiopolis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Axiopolis vs Agricola Borcea

Axiopolis beat Agricola Borcea 5-1 in Liga III - Serie 3 on April 18, 2025.

The match was played at Stadionul Ideal Cernavodă in Cernavodă.