Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

AWC vs HV & CV Quick — Derde Divisie - Sunday 2019

AWC
AWC
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
HV & CV Quick
HV & CV Quick
5/12/2024Derde Divisie - SundayDerde Divisie - Sunday · Girone B - 32Sportpark De Wijchert

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

AWC39%
×Draw25%
HV & CV Quick36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AWC
1.50
HV & CV Quick
1.44

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 82 away

creates per match

AWC
0.88
HV & CV Quick
1.22

allows per match

AWC
1.65
HV & CV Quick
2.13

finishing

AWC+0.00on par
HV & CV Quick+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AWC ↓

HV & CV Quick →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

AWC or draw
64%
AWC or HV & CV Quick
75%
Draw or HV & CV Quick
61%

Winning margin

AWC wins by 2+
19%
HV & CV Quick wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

AWC 1+ goals
78%
AWC 2+ goals
44%
AWC 3+ goals
19%
HV & CV Quick 1+ goals
76%
HV & CV Quick 2+ goals
42%
HV & CV Quick 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

AWC (draw refunded)
52%
HV & CV Quick (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AWC at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.65 · 17 matches

HV & CV Quick away — creates 1.22, concedes 2.13 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AWC attack 0.88 + HV & CV Quick defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.50

HV & CV Quick attack 1.22 + AWC defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

AWC scores more
39%
level
25%
HV & CV Quick scores more
36%

AWC at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "AWC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Derde Divisie - Sunday: AWC 0–0 HV & CV Quick

AWC and HV & CV Quick drew 0-0 in Derde Divisie - Sunday on May 12, 2024.

The match was played at Sportpark De Wijchert in Wijchen.