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AWC vs Groene Ster — Derde Divisie - Sunday 2019

AWC
AWC
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Groene Ster
Groene Ster
3/17/2024Derde Divisie - SundayDerde Divisie - Sunday · Girone B - 25Sportpark De Wijchert

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

AWC38%
×Draw26%
Groene Ster36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AWC
1.35
Groene Ster
1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 81 away

creates per match

AWC
0.88
Groene Ster
0.94

allows per match

AWC
1.65
Groene Ster
1.83

finishing

AWC+0.00on par
Groene Ster+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AWC ↓

Groene Ster →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

AWC or draw
64%
AWC or Groene Ster
74%
Draw or Groene Ster
62%

Winning margin

AWC wins by 2+
17%
Groene Ster wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

AWC 1+ goals
74%
AWC 2+ goals
39%
AWC 3+ goals
15%
Groene Ster 1+ goals
72%
Groene Ster 2+ goals
37%
Groene Ster 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

AWC (draw refunded)
52%
Groene Ster (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AWC at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.65 · 17 matches

Groene Ster away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.83 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AWC attack 0.88 + Groene Ster defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.35

Groene Ster attack 0.94 + AWC defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

AWC scores more
38%
level
26%
Groene Ster scores more
36%

AWC at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "AWC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: AWC vs Groene Ster

AWC beat Groene Ster 1-0 in Derde Divisie - Sunday on March 17, 2024.

The match was played at Sportpark De Wijchert in Wijchen.