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AWC vs Gemert — Derde Divisie - Sunday 2019

AWC
AWC
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Gemert
Gemert
2/4/2024Derde Divisie - SundayDerde Divisie - Sunday · Girone B - 21Sportpark De Wijchert

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

AWC32%
×Draw24%
Gemert45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AWC
1.39
Gemert
1.70

Gemert creates 22% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 99 away

creates per match

AWC
0.88
Gemert
1.75

allows per match

AWC
1.65
Gemert
1.90

finishing

AWC+0.00on par
Gemert+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AWC ↓

Gemert →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

AWC or draw
55%
AWC or Gemert
76%
Draw or Gemert
68%

Winning margin

AWC wins by 2+
14%
Gemert wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

AWC 1+ goals
75%
AWC 2+ goals
40%
AWC 3+ goals
16%
Gemert 1+ goals
82%
Gemert 2+ goals
51%
Gemert 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

AWC (draw refunded)
41%
Gemert (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AWC at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.65 · 17 matches

Gemert away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.90 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AWC attack 0.88 + Gemert defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.39

Gemert attack 1.75 + AWC defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

AWC scores more
32%
level
24%
Gemert scores more
45%

Gemert at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Gemert will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: AWC vs Gemert

Gemert beat AWC 2-1 in Derde Divisie - Sunday on February 4, 2024.

The match was played at Sportpark De Wijchert in Wijchen.