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Awassa Kenema vs Sebeta Kenema — Premier League 2019

Awassa Kenema
Awassa Kenema
FT
1 – 3
Sebeta Kenema
Sebeta Kenema
12/18/2020Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 2Addis Ababa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Awassa Kenema42%
×Draw28%
Sebeta Kenema30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Awassa Kenema
1.27
Sebeta Kenema
1.04

Awassa Kenema creates 22% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 35 away

creates per match

Awassa Kenema
1.23
Sebeta Kenema
1.00

allows per match

Awassa Kenema
1.09
Sebeta Kenema
1.31

finishing

Awassa Kenema+0.00on par
Sebeta Kenema+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Awassa Kenema ↓

Sebeta Kenema →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Awassa Kenema or draw
70%
Awassa Kenema or Sebeta Kenema
72%
Draw or Sebeta Kenema
58%

Winning margin

Awassa Kenema wins by 2+
19%
Sebeta Kenema wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Awassa Kenema 1+ goals
72%
Awassa Kenema 2+ goals
36%
Awassa Kenema 3+ goals
14%
Sebeta Kenema 1+ goals
65%
Sebeta Kenema 2+ goals
28%
Sebeta Kenema 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Awassa Kenema (draw refunded)
58%
Sebeta Kenema (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Awassa Kenema at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.09 · 102 matches

Sebeta Kenema away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.31 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Awassa Kenema attack 1.23 + Sebeta Kenema defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.27

Sebeta Kenema attack 1.00 + Awassa Kenema defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Awassa Kenema scores more
42%
level
28%
Sebeta Kenema scores more
30%

Awassa Kenema at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Awassa Kenema will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Awassa Kenema 1–3 Sebeta Kenema

Sebeta Kenema beat Awassa Kenema 3-1 in Premier League on December 18, 2020.

The match was played at Addis Ababa Stadium in Addis Abeba.