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Awassa Kenema vs Kedus Giorgis — Premier League 2019

Awassa Kenema
Awassa Kenema
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Kedus Giorgis
Kedus Giorgis
1/9/2026Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 14Hawassa Kenema Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 101+ matches

Awassa Kenema30%
×Draw29%
Kedus Giorgis40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Awassa Kenema
0.99
Kedus Giorgis
1.19

Kedus Giorgis creates 20% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 101 away

creates per match

Awassa Kenema
1.23
Kedus Giorgis
1.29

allows per match

Awassa Kenema
1.09
Kedus Giorgis
0.76

finishing

Awassa Kenema+0.00on par
Kedus Giorgis+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Awassa Kenema ↓

Kedus Giorgis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Awassa Kenema or draw
60%
Awassa Kenema or Kedus Giorgis
71%
Draw or Kedus Giorgis
70%

Winning margin

Awassa Kenema wins by 2+
11%
Kedus Giorgis wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Awassa Kenema 1+ goals
63%
Awassa Kenema 2+ goals
26%
Awassa Kenema 3+ goals
8%
Kedus Giorgis 1+ goals
70%
Kedus Giorgis 2+ goals
33%
Kedus Giorgis 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Awassa Kenema (draw refunded)
43%
Kedus Giorgis (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Awassa Kenema at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.09 · 102 matches

Kedus Giorgis away — creates 1.29, concedes 0.76 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Awassa Kenema attack 1.23 + Kedus Giorgis defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.99

Kedus Giorgis attack 1.29 + Awassa Kenema defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Awassa Kenema scores more
30%
level
29%
Kedus Giorgis scores more
40%

Kedus Giorgis at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Kedus Giorgis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Awassa Kenema vs Kedus Giorgis

Awassa Kenema beat Kedus Giorgis 1-0 in Premier League on January 9, 2026.

The match was played at Hawassa Kenema Stadium in Hawassa.