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Awassa Kenema vs Hadiya Hosaena — Premier League 2019

Awassa Kenema
Awassa Kenema
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Hadiya Hosaena
Hadiya Hosaena
2/18/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 15Adama Science and Technology University Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 102+ matches

Awassa Kenema37%
×Draw30%
Hadiya Hosaena33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Awassa Kenema
1.06
Hadiya Hosaena
0.98

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 102 home / 102 away

creates per match

Awassa Kenema
1.23
Hadiya Hosaena
0.87

allows per match

Awassa Kenema
1.09
Hadiya Hosaena
0.90

finishing

Awassa Kenema+0.00on par
Hadiya Hosaena+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Awassa Kenema ↓

Hadiya Hosaena →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Awassa Kenema or draw
67%
Awassa Kenema or Hadiya Hosaena
70%
Draw or Hadiya Hosaena
63%

Winning margin

Awassa Kenema wins by 2+
15%
Hadiya Hosaena wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Awassa Kenema 1+ goals
65%
Awassa Kenema 2+ goals
29%
Awassa Kenema 3+ goals
9%
Hadiya Hosaena 1+ goals
62%
Hadiya Hosaena 2+ goals
26%
Hadiya Hosaena 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Awassa Kenema (draw refunded)
53%
Hadiya Hosaena (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Awassa Kenema at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.09 · 102 matches

Hadiya Hosaena away — creates 0.87, concedes 0.90 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Awassa Kenema attack 1.23 + Hadiya Hosaena defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.06

Hadiya Hosaena attack 0.87 + Awassa Kenema defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Awassa Kenema scores more
37%
level
30%
Hadiya Hosaena scores more
33%

Awassa Kenema at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Awassa Kenema will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Awassa Kenema 1 – 1 Hadiya Hosaena

Awassa Kenema and Hadiya Hosaena drew 1-1 in Premier League on February 18, 2024.

The match was played at Adama Science and Technology University Stadium in Adama.