Awassa Kenema 2–1 Ethiopia Nigd Bank

Awassa Kenema

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Ethiopia Nigd Bank

4/22/2025

Premier League · Round 26Hawassa University Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Awassa Kenema35%

×Draw28%

Ethiopia Nigd Bank37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Awassa KenemaExpected goals in this matchEthiopia Nigd Bank

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

1.16

Awassa Kenema

1.13

Ethiopia Nigd Bank

1.16

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 102 home / 52 away

1.23

creates per match

1.23

1.09

allows per match

1.02

creates per match

Awassa Kenema

1.23

Ethiopia Nigd Bank

1.23

allows per match

Awassa Kenema

1.09

Ethiopia Nigd Bank

1.02

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Awassa Kenema+0.00on par

Ethiopia Nigd Bank+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Awassa Kenema ↓

Ethiopia Nigd Bank →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Awassa Kenema or draw

63%

Awassa Kenema or Ethiopia Nigd Bank

72%

Draw or Ethiopia Nigd Bank

65%

Winning margin

Awassa Kenema wins by 2+

14%

Ethiopia Nigd Bank wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Awassa Kenema 1+ goals

68%

Awassa Kenema 2+ goals

31%

Awassa Kenema 3+ goals

11%

Ethiopia Nigd Bank 1+ goals

69%

Ethiopia Nigd Bank 2+ goals

32%

Ethiopia Nigd Bank 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Awassa Kenema (draw refunded)

49%

Ethiopia Nigd Bank (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Awassa Kenema at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.09 · 102 matches

Ethiopia Nigd Bank away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.02 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Awassa Kenema attack 1.23 + Ethiopia Nigd Bank defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.13

Ethiopia Nigd Bank attack 1.23 + Awassa Kenema defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Awassa Kenema scores more

35%

level

28%

Ethiopia Nigd Bank scores more

37%

Ethiopia Nigd Bank at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Ethiopia Nigd Bank will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff