Awassa Kenema 2–2 Addis Ababa Ketema

Awassa Kenema

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Addis Ababa Ketema

5/13/2022

Premier League · Round 23Bahir Dar Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Awassa Kenema39%

×Draw27%

Addis Ababa Ketema33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Awassa KenemaExpected goals in this matchAddis Ababa Ketema

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

1.15

Awassa Kenema

1.28

Addis Ababa Ketema

1.15

Awassa Kenema creates 11% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 15 away

1.23

creates per match

1.20

1.09

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Awassa Kenema

1.23

Addis Ababa Ketema

1.20

allows per match

Awassa Kenema

1.09

Addis Ababa Ketema

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Awassa Kenema+0.00on par

Addis Ababa Ketema+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Awassa Kenema ↓

Addis Ababa Ketema →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Awassa Kenema or draw

67%

Awassa Kenema or Addis Ababa Ketema

73%

Draw or Addis Ababa Ketema

61%

Winning margin

Awassa Kenema wins by 2+

18%

Addis Ababa Ketema wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Awassa Kenema 1+ goals

72%

Awassa Kenema 2+ goals

37%

Awassa Kenema 3+ goals

14%

Addis Ababa Ketema 1+ goals

68%

Addis Ababa Ketema 2+ goals

32%

Addis Ababa Ketema 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Awassa Kenema (draw refunded)

54%

Addis Ababa Ketema (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Awassa Kenema at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.09 · 102 matches

Addis Ababa Ketema away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.33 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Awassa Kenema attack 1.23 + Addis Ababa Ketema defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.28

Addis Ababa Ketema attack 1.20 + Awassa Kenema defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Awassa Kenema scores more

39%

level

27%

Addis Ababa Ketema scores more

33%

Awassa Kenema at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Awassa Kenema will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff