AVS 2–1 Portimonense: Result & Stats

AVS

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Portimonense

Benny 89'

J. Mercado 51'

R. Carrillo 90+4'

6/2/2024

Primeira Liga · Relegation RoundEstádio Clube Desportivo das Aves

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

AVS35%

×Draw27%

Portimonense38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AVSExpected goals in this matchPortimonense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.26

1.32

AVS

1.26

Portimonense

1.32

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 25 home / 7 away

0.93

creates per match

0.90

1.75

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

AVS

0.93

Portimonense

0.90

allows per match

AVS

1.75

Portimonense

1.59

-0.05on par

finishing

+0.53scores more than expected

finishing

AVS-0.05on par

Portimonense+0.53scores more

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AVS ↓

Portimonense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

AVS or draw

62%

AVS or Portimonense

73%

Draw or Portimonense

65%

Winning margin

AVS wins by 2+

15%

Portimonense wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

AVS 1+ goals

72%

AVS 2+ goals

36%

AVS 3+ goals

13%

Portimonense 1+ goals

73%

Portimonense 2+ goals

38%

Portimonense 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

AVS (draw refunded)

48%

Portimonense (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AVS at home — creates 0.93, concedes 1.75 · 25 matches

Portimonense away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.59 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AVS attack 0.93 + Portimonense defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.26

Portimonense attack 0.90 + AVS defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

AVS scores more

35%

level

27%

Portimonense scores more

38%

Portimonense at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Portimonense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

93

Simão

AVS · G

8.3

Match Events

22'

E. Veiga← B. Akinsola

27'

Hildeberto Pereira

41'

Edson FariasRed card cancelled

51'

J. Mercado

59'

S. Jasper← Midana Cassamá

63'

64'

64'

66'

68'

R. Carrillo← Hildeberto Pereira

68'

Luan← Gonçalo Costa

73'

Davis← Carlinhos

73'

Dener← Lucas Ventura

79'

Y. Mena← J. Mercado

80'

Gustavo Mendonça← Nenê

80'

Fernando Fonseca← E. Veiga

85'

Yair Mena

89'

Benny↳ Gustavo Mendonça

90+6'

Fernando Fonseca

90+6'

Pedrão

90+4'

R. Carrillo↳ Pedrão

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AVSPortimonense

Overview

31%Possession69%

10Total Shots16

1Corners8

12Fouls17

Shots

10Total Shots16

5On Target7

5Off Target5

0Blocked4

8Inside Box9

2Outside Box7

Passing

31%Possession69%

204Total Passes447

124Accurate Passes370

61%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

6Saves3

Discipline

12Fouls17

2Yellow Cards3

1Red Cards1

2Offsides1