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AVS vs Penafiel — Segunda Liga 2018

AVS
AVS
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Penafiel
Penafiel
10/9/2023Segunda LigaSegunda Liga · Round 7Estádio Clube Desportivo das Aves

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

AVS44%
×Draw28%
Penafiel28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AVS
1.29
Penafiel
0.97

AVS creates 33% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 132 away

creates per match

AVS
1.18
Penafiel
1.01

allows per match

AVS
0.94
Penafiel
1.41

finishing

AVS+0.00on par
Penafiel+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AVS ↓

Penafiel →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

AVS or draw
72%
AVS or Penafiel
72%
Draw or Penafiel
56%

Winning margin

AVS wins by 2+
20%
Penafiel wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

AVS 1+ goals
72%
AVS 2+ goals
37%
AVS 3+ goals
14%
Penafiel 1+ goals
62%
Penafiel 2+ goals
25%
Penafiel 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

AVS (draw refunded)
61%
Penafiel (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AVS at home — creates 1.18, concedes 0.94 · 17 matches

Penafiel away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.41 · 132 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AVS attack 1.18 + Penafiel defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.29

Penafiel attack 1.01 + AVS defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

AVS scores more
44%
level
28%
Penafiel scores more
28%

AVS at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "AVS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda Liga: AVS 1–0 Penafiel

AVS beat Penafiel 1-0 in Segunda Liga on October 9, 2023.

The match was played at Estádio Clube Desportivo das Aves in Vila das Aves.