AVS 2–0 Pacos Ferreira: Result & Stats

AVS

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Pacos Ferreira

12/16/2023

Segunda Liga · Round 14Estádio Clube Desportivo das Aves

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

AVS41%

×Draw29%

Pacos Ferreira30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AVSExpected goals in this matchPacos Ferreira

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

0.97

AVS

1.19

Pacos Ferreira

0.97

AVS creates 23% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 69 away

1.18

creates per match

1.00

0.94

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

AVS

1.18

Pacos Ferreira

1.00

allows per match

AVS

0.94

Pacos Ferreira

1.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AVS+0.00on par

Pacos Ferreira+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AVS ↓

Pacos Ferreira →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

AVS or draw

70%

AVS or Pacos Ferreira

71%

Draw or Pacos Ferreira

59%

Winning margin

AVS wins by 2+

18%

Pacos Ferreira wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

AVS 1+ goals

70%

AVS 2+ goals

33%

AVS 3+ goals

12%

Pacos Ferreira 1+ goals

62%

Pacos Ferreira 2+ goals

25%

Pacos Ferreira 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

AVS (draw refunded)

58%

Pacos Ferreira (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AVS at home — creates 1.18, concedes 0.94 · 17 matches

Pacos Ferreira away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.19 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AVS attack 1.18 + Pacos Ferreira defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.19

Pacos Ferreira attack 1.00 + AVS defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

AVS scores more

41%

level

29%

Pacos Ferreira scores more

30%

AVS at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "AVS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff