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AVS vs Mafra — Segunda Liga 2018

AVS
AVS
FT
3 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Mafra
Mafra
5/6/2024Segunda LigaSegunda Liga · Round 32Estádio Clube Desportivo das Aves

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

AVS44%
×Draw28%
Mafra29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AVS
1.33
Mafra
1.02

AVS creates 30% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 114 away

creates per match

AVS
1.18
Mafra
1.10

allows per match

AVS
0.94
Mafra
1.49

finishing

AVS+0.00on par
Mafra+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AVS ↓

Mafra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

AVS or draw
71%
AVS or Mafra
72%
Draw or Mafra
56%

Winning margin

AVS wins by 2+
20%
Mafra wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

AVS 1+ goals
74%
AVS 2+ goals
38%
AVS 3+ goals
15%
Mafra 1+ goals
64%
Mafra 2+ goals
27%
Mafra 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

AVS (draw refunded)
60%
Mafra (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AVS at home — creates 1.18, concedes 0.94 · 17 matches

Mafra away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.49 · 114 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AVS attack 1.18 + Mafra defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.33

Mafra attack 1.10 + AVS defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

AVS scores more
44%
level
28%
Mafra scores more
29%

AVS at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "AVS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AVS 3 – 3 Mafra

AVS and Mafra drew 3-3 in Segunda Liga on May 6, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Clube Desportivo das Aves in Vila das Aves.