AVS 2–0 Academico Viseu: Result & Stats

AVS

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Academico Viseu

Nenê 66'

J. Mercado 63'

2/27/2024

Segunda Liga · Round 23Estádio Clube Desportivo das Aves

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

AVS42%

×Draw28%

Academico Viseu30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AVSExpected goals in this matchAcademico Viseu

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

1.05

AVS

1.28

Academico Viseu

1.05

AVS creates 22% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 133 away

1.18

creates per match

1.16

0.94

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

AVS

1.18

Academico Viseu

1.16

allows per match

AVS

0.94

Academico Viseu

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AVS+0.00on par

Academico Viseu+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AVS ↓

Academico Viseu →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

AVS or draw

70%

AVS or Academico Viseu

72%

Draw or Academico Viseu

58%

Winning margin

AVS wins by 2+

19%

Academico Viseu wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

AVS 1+ goals

72%

AVS 2+ goals

37%

AVS 3+ goals

14%

Academico Viseu 1+ goals

65%

Academico Viseu 2+ goals

28%

Academico Viseu 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

AVS (draw refunded)

58%

Academico Viseu (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AVS at home — creates 1.18, concedes 0.94 · 17 matches

Academico Viseu away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.38 · 133 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AVS attack 1.18 + Academico Viseu defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.28

Academico Viseu attack 1.16 + AVS defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

AVS scores more

42%

level

28%

Academico Viseu scores more

30%

AVS at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "AVS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

30'

50'

63'

66'

69'

S. Koné← S. Messeguem

69'

Martim Ferreira← Miguel Bandarra

72'

Martim Ferreira

79'

Stênio← Vasco Lopes

81'

S. Petkov← Famana Quizera

87'

Gustavo Mendonça← Benny

87'

B. Akinsola← J. Mercado

90+2'

Jorge Teixeira← Nenê

Possession

Shots

Statistics

AVSAcademico

Overview

56%Possession44%

17Total Shots7

5Corners3

19Fouls14

Shots

17Total Shots7

4On Target2

7Off Target4

6Blocked1

Passing

56%Possession44%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

19Fouls14

2Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards0

1Offsides1