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Avro vs Vauxhall Motors — League #54 2026

Avro
Avro
FT
3 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Vauxhall Motors
Vauxhall Motors
3/15/2025League #54League #54 · Northern West - 35Vestacare Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Avro54%
×Draw20%
Vauxhall Motors27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Avro
2.42
Vauxhall Motors
1.68

Avro creates 44% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 5 away

creates per match

Avro
2.85
Vauxhall Motors
2.20

allows per match

Avro
1.15
Vauxhall Motors
2.00

finishing

Avro+0.00on par
Vauxhall Motors+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Avro ↓

Vauxhall Motors →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
58%42%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

Avro or draw
73%
Avro or Vauxhall Motors
80%
Draw or Vauxhall Motors
46%

Winning margin

Avro wins by 2+
34%
Vauxhall Motors wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Avro 1+ goals
91%
Avro 2+ goals
69%
Avro 3+ goals
43%
Vauxhall Motors 1+ goals
81%
Vauxhall Motors 2+ goals
50%
Vauxhall Motors 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Avro (draw refunded)
67%
Vauxhall Motors (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Avro at home — creates 2.85, concedes 1.15 · 13 matches

Vauxhall Motors away — creates 2.20, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Avro attack 2.85 + Vauxhall Motors defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.42

Vauxhall Motors attack 2.20 + Avro defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Avro scores more
54%
level
20%
Vauxhall Motors scores more
27%

Avro at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Avro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #54: Avro 3–0 Vauxhall Motors

Avro beat Vauxhall Motors 3-0 in League #54 on March 15, 2025.

The match was played at Vestacare Stadium in Oldham, Greater Manchester.