Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Avro vs Mossley — League #54 2026

Avro
Avro
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Mossley
Mossley
1/1/2026League #54League #54 · Northern West - 25Vestacare Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Avro58%
×Draw23%
Mossley19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Avro
1.80
Mossley
0.94

Avro creates 91% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 4 away

creates per match

Avro
2.60
Mossley
0.75

allows per match

Avro
1.13
Mossley
1.00

finishing

Avro+0.00on par
Mossley+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Avro ↓

Mossley →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Avro or draw
81%
Avro or Mossley
77%
Draw or Mossley
42%

Winning margin

Avro wins by 2+
33%
Mossley wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Avro 1+ goals
83%
Avro 2+ goals
54%
Avro 3+ goals
27%
Mossley 1+ goals
61%
Mossley 2+ goals
24%
Mossley 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Avro (draw refunded)
75%
Mossley (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Avro at home — creates 2.60, concedes 1.13 · 15 matches

Mossley away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Avro attack 2.60 + Mossley defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.80

Mossley attack 0.75 + Avro defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Avro scores more
58%
level
23%
Mossley scores more
19%

Avro at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Avro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Avro 2 – 0 Mossley

Avro beat Mossley 2-0 in League #54 on January 1, 2026.

The match was played at Vestacare Stadium in Oldham, Greater Manchester.