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Avro vs Atherton Collieries — League #54 2026

Avro
Avro
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Atherton Collieries
Atherton Collieries
2/28/2026League #54League #54

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Avro52%
×Draw22%
Atherton Collieries26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Avro
1.93
Atherton Collieries
1.31

Avro creates 47% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 4 away

creates per match

Avro
2.60
Atherton Collieries
1.50

allows per match

Avro
1.13
Atherton Collieries
1.25

finishing

Avro+0.00on par
Atherton Collieries+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Avro ↓

Atherton Collieries →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Avro or draw
74%
Avro or Atherton Collieries
78%
Draw or Atherton Collieries
48%

Winning margin

Avro wins by 2+
30%
Atherton Collieries wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Avro 1+ goals
85%
Avro 2+ goals
57%
Avro 3+ goals
30%
Atherton Collieries 1+ goals
73%
Atherton Collieries 2+ goals
38%
Atherton Collieries 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Avro (draw refunded)
67%
Atherton Collieries (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Avro at home — creates 2.60, concedes 1.13 · 15 matches

Atherton Collieries away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Avro attack 2.60 + Atherton Collieries defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.93

Atherton Collieries attack 1.50 + Avro defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Avro scores more
52%
level
22%
Atherton Collieries scores more
26%

Avro at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Avro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Avro vs Atherton Collieries

Avro beat Atherton Collieries 3-1 in League #54 on February 28, 2026.