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Avrankou Omnisport vs Sitatunga — Championnat National 2019

Avrankou Omnisport
Avrankou Omnisport
FT
2 – 1
Sitatunga
Sitatunga
6/12/2022Championnat NationalChampionnat National · Relegation Round - 18Stade Municipal d'Avrankou

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Avrankou Omnisport43%
×Draw30%
Sitatunga27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Avrankou Omnisport
1.17
Sitatunga
0.87

Avrankou Omnisport creates 34% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 46 away

creates per match

Avrankou Omnisport
1.07
Sitatunga
0.70

allows per match

Avrankou Omnisport
1.04
Sitatunga
1.26

finishing

Avrankou Omnisport+0.00on par
Sitatunga+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Avrankou Omnisport ↓

Sitatunga →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Avrankou Omnisport or draw
73%
Avrankou Omnisport or Sitatunga
70%
Draw or Sitatunga
57%

Winning margin

Avrankou Omnisport wins by 2+
18%
Sitatunga wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Avrankou Omnisport 1+ goals
69%
Avrankou Omnisport 2+ goals
33%
Avrankou Omnisport 3+ goals
11%
Sitatunga 1+ goals
58%
Sitatunga 2+ goals
22%
Sitatunga 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Avrankou Omnisport (draw refunded)
61%
Sitatunga (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Avrankou Omnisport at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.04 · 73 matches

Sitatunga away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.26 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Avrankou Omnisport attack 1.07 + Sitatunga defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.17

Sitatunga attack 0.70 + Avrankou Omnisport defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Avrankou Omnisport scores more
43%
level
30%
Sitatunga scores more
27%

Avrankou Omnisport at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Avrankou Omnisport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Championnat National: Avrankou Omnisport 2–1 Sitatunga

Avrankou Omnisport beat Sitatunga 2-1 in Championnat National on June 12, 2022.

The match was played at Stade Municipal d'Avrankou in Avrankou.