Avrankou Omnisport 3–0 JAC: Result & Stats

Avrankou Omnisport

FT

3 – 0

JAC

4/24/2021

Championnat National · Relegation Round - 1Stade Municipal de Missérété

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Avrankou Omnisport45%

×Draw30%

JAC26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Avrankou OmnisportExpected goals in this matchJAC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

0.85

Avrankou Omnisport

1.22

JAC

0.85

Avrankou Omnisport creates 44% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 44 away

1.08

creates per match

0.64

1.06

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Avrankou Omnisport

1.08

JAC

0.64

allows per match

Avrankou Omnisport

1.06

JAC

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Avrankou Omnisport+0.00on par

JAC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Avrankou Omnisport ↓

JAC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–111%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Avrankou Omnisport or draw

74%

Avrankou Omnisport or JAC

70%

Draw or JAC

55%

Winning margin

Avrankou Omnisport wins by 2+

20%

JAC wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Avrankou Omnisport 1+ goals

70%

Avrankou Omnisport 2+ goals

34%

Avrankou Omnisport 3+ goals

12%

JAC 1+ goals

57%

JAC 2+ goals

21%

JAC 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Avrankou Omnisport (draw refunded)

63%

JAC (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Avrankou Omnisport at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.06 · 72 matches

JAC away — creates 0.64, concedes 1.36 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Avrankou Omnisport attack 1.08 + JAC defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.22

JAC attack 0.64 + Avrankou Omnisport defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Avrankou Omnisport scores more

45%

level

30%

JAC scores more

26%

Avrankou Omnisport at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Avrankou Omnisport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff