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Avrankou Omnisport vs ASOS — Championnat National 2019

Avrankou Omnisport
Avrankou Omnisport
FT
0 – 1
ASOS
ASOS
1/27/2022Championnat NationalChampionnat National · Round 17Stade Municipal d'Avrankou

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Avrankou Omnisport42%
×Draw29%
ASOS29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Avrankou Omnisport
1.21
ASOS
0.96

Avrankou Omnisport creates 26% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 41 away

creates per match

Avrankou Omnisport
1.07
ASOS
0.88

allows per match

Avrankou Omnisport
1.04
ASOS
1.34

finishing

Avrankou Omnisport+0.00on par
ASOS+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Avrankou Omnisport ↓

ASOS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Avrankou Omnisport or draw
71%
Avrankou Omnisport or ASOS
71%
Draw or ASOS
58%

Winning margin

Avrankou Omnisport wins by 2+
18%
ASOS wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Avrankou Omnisport 1+ goals
70%
Avrankou Omnisport 2+ goals
34%
Avrankou Omnisport 3+ goals
12%
ASOS 1+ goals
62%
ASOS 2+ goals
25%
ASOS 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Avrankou Omnisport (draw refunded)
59%
ASOS (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Avrankou Omnisport at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.04 · 73 matches

ASOS away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.34 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Avrankou Omnisport attack 1.07 + ASOS defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.21

ASOS attack 0.88 + Avrankou Omnisport defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Avrankou Omnisport scores more
42%
level
29%
ASOS scores more
29%

Avrankou Omnisport at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Avrankou Omnisport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Championnat National: Avrankou Omnisport 0–1 ASOS

ASOS beat Avrankou Omnisport 1-0 in Championnat National on January 27, 2022.

The match was played at Stade Municipal d'Avrankou in Avrankou.