Avrankou Omnisport 1–1 Adjidja: Result & Stats

Avrankou Omnisport

FT

1 – 1

Adjidja

3/24/2024

Championnat National · Relegation Round - 4Stade Municipal d'Avrankou

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Avrankou Omnisport41%

×Draw31%

Adjidja28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Avrankou OmnisportExpected goals in this matchAdjidja

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

0.84

Avrankou Omnisport

1.10

Adjidja

0.84

Avrankou Omnisport creates 31% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 75 away

1.07

creates per match

0.64

1.04

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Avrankou Omnisport

1.07

Adjidja

0.64

allows per match

Avrankou Omnisport

1.04

Adjidja

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Avrankou Omnisport+0.00on par

Adjidja+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Avrankou Omnisport ↓

Adjidja →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–112%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Avrankou Omnisport or draw

72%

Avrankou Omnisport or Adjidja

69%

Draw or Adjidja

59%

Winning margin

Avrankou Omnisport wins by 2+

17%

Adjidja wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Avrankou Omnisport 1+ goals

67%

Avrankou Omnisport 2+ goals

30%

Avrankou Omnisport 3+ goals

10%

Adjidja 1+ goals

57%

Adjidja 2+ goals

21%

Adjidja 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Avrankou Omnisport (draw refunded)

60%

Adjidja (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Avrankou Omnisport at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.04 · 73 matches

Adjidja away — creates 0.64, concedes 1.13 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Avrankou Omnisport attack 1.07 + Adjidja defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.10

Adjidja attack 0.64 + Avrankou Omnisport defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Avrankou Omnisport scores more

41%

level

31%

Adjidja scores more

28%

Avrankou Omnisport at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Avrankou Omnisport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff