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Avondale vs Wellington Phoenix — Australia Cup 2021

Avondale
Avondale
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 3
Wellington Phoenix
Wellington Phoenixadvanced
12/14/2021Australia CupAustralia Cup · Round of 16ABD Stadium Broadmeadows Valley Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Avondale52%
×Draw19%
Wellington Phoenix29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Avondale
2.50
Wellington Phoenix
1.85

Avondale creates 35% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 10 away

creates per match

Avondale
3.40
Wellington Phoenix
1.30

allows per match

Avondale
2.40
Wellington Phoenix
1.60

finishing

Avondale+0.00on par
Wellington Phoenix+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Over
  • Over81
  • Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Avondale ↓

Wellington Phoenix →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–26%
1–33%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
81%19%3.5
63%37%4.5
43%57%

Double chance

Avondale or draw
71%
Avondale or Wellington Phoenix
81%
Draw or Wellington Phoenix
48%

Winning margin

Avondale wins by 2+
32%
Wellington Phoenix wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Avondale 1+ goals
92%
Avondale 2+ goals
71%
Avondale 3+ goals
45%
Wellington Phoenix 1+ goals
84%
Wellington Phoenix 2+ goals
55%
Wellington Phoenix 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Avondale (draw refunded)
64%
Wellington Phoenix (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
71%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Avondale at home — creates 3.40, concedes 2.40 · 5 matches

Wellington Phoenix away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.60 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Avondale attack 3.40 + Wellington Phoenix defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 2.50

Wellington Phoenix attack 1.30 + Avondale defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Avondale scores more
52%
level
19%
Wellington Phoenix scores more
29%

Avondale at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Avondale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Avondale vs Wellington Phoenix

Wellington Phoenix beat Avondale 4-1 in Australia Cup on December 14, 2021.

The match was played at ABD Stadium Broadmeadows Valley Park in Melbourne.