Avondale 2–4 Newcastle Jets: Result & Stats

Avondale

2 – 4

HT: 1 – 2

Newcastle Jets

L. Tevere 57' (pen), 32'

A. Nunes 90'

E. Adams 75'

K. Mizunuma 16'

X. Bertoncello 6'

8/31/2025

Australia Cup · Semi-finalsAvenger park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Avondale35%

×Draw19%

Newcastle Jets47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AvondaleExpected goals in this matchNewcastle Jets

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.33

2.70

Avondale

2.33

Newcastle Jets

2.70

Newcastle Jets creates 16% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

3.40

creates per match

3.00

2.40

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Avondale

3.40

Newcastle Jets

3.00

allows per match

Avondale

2.40

Newcastle Jets

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Avondale+0.00on par

Newcastle Jets+0.00on par

Total goals

Over87
Under13

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes84
No16

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Avondale ↓

Newcastle Jets →

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–32%

0–41%

1–02%

1–14%

1–26%

1–35%

1–43%

2–02%

2–15%

2–27%

2–36%

2–44%

3–01%

3–14%

3–25%

3–35%

3–43%

4–01%

4–12%

4–23%

4–33%

4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

96%4%2.5

87%13%3.5

73%27%4.5

55%45%

Double chance

Avondale or draw

53%

Avondale or Newcastle Jets

81%

Draw or Newcastle Jets

65%

Winning margin

Avondale wins by 2+

19%

Newcastle Jets wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

Avondale 1+ goals

90%

Avondale 2+ goals

67%

Avondale 3+ goals

41%

Newcastle Jets 1+ goals

93%

Newcastle Jets 2+ goals

75%

Newcastle Jets 3+ goals

50%

Draw no bet

Avondale (draw refunded)

43%

Newcastle Jets (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

80%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Avondale at home — creates 3.40, concedes 2.40 · 5 matches

Newcastle Jets away — creates 3.00, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Avondale attack 3.40 + Newcastle Jets defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 2.33

Newcastle Jets attack 3.00 + Avondale defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 2.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 47%?"

Avondale scores more

35%

level

19%

Newcastle Jets scores more

47%

Newcastle Jets at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Newcastle Jets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

X. Bertoncello↳ M. Burgess

10'

E. Wellsmore

16'

K. Mizunuma↳ D. Wilmering

32'

L. Tevere

46'

K. Kur← S. Zinni

47'

L. Tevere

57'

L. TeverePenalty

58'

E. Adams← L. Rose

58'

W. Dobson← X. Bertoncello

73'

C. Cuba← S. Valentini

73'

G. Ott← M. Aguek

73'

O. Fryer← K. Mizunuma

75'

E. Adams↳ T. Aquilina

81'

J. Courtney-Perkins← K. Trajceski

84'

A. Nunes← M. Burgess

90+1'

A. Badolato

90'

A. Nunes↳ A. Badolato

Avondale

Newcastle

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Mizunuma

⚽

▼

⚽2

▼

▼

▼

▼

46'▲K. Kur←▼S. Zinni

73'▲C. Cuba←▼S. Valentini

73'▲G. Ott←▼M. Aguek

81'▲J. Courtney-Perkins←▼K. Trajceski

Avondale substitutes

38Mayen2D’Argenio5Reid80Cuba11Kur25Courtney-Perkins9Ott

Manager: Mark Milligan

58'▲E. Adams←▼L. Rose

58'▲W. Dobson←▼X. Bertoncello

73'▲O. Fryer←▼K. Mizunuma

84'▲A. Nunes←▼M. Burgess

Newcastle Jets substitutes

40Baylis5Shaughnessy7Adams45Bracco28Dobson24Nunes25Fryer

Australia Cup: Avondale 2–4 Newcastle Jets

Newcastle Jets beat Avondale 4-2 in Australia Cup on August 31, 2025.

Goals: X. Bertoncello (6'), K. Mizunuma (16'), L. Tevere (32', 57' pen), E. Adams (75'), A. Nunes (90').

The match was played at Avenger park in Melbourne.

Avondale vs Newcastle Jets — Australia Cup 2021

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Australia Cup: Avondale 2–4 Newcastle Jets