Avondale 5–1 Moreland City: Result & Stats

Avondale

FT

5 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Moreland City

6/8/2024

Victoria NPL · Round 17Avenger Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Avondale74%

×Draw14%

Moreland City12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AvondaleExpected goals in this matchMoreland City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.04

1.17

Avondale

3.04

Moreland City

1.17

Avondale creates 160% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 26 away

2.71

creates per match

1.31

1.02

allows per match

3.38

creates per match

Avondale

2.71

Moreland City

1.31

allows per match

Avondale

1.02

Moreland City

3.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Avondale+0.00on par

Moreland City+0.00on par

Total goals

Over78
Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Avondale ↓

Moreland City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–15%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–05%

4–16%

4–24%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

78%22%3.5

59%41%4.5

39%61%

Double chance

Avondale or draw

88%

Avondale or Moreland City

86%

Draw or Moreland City

26%

Winning margin

Avondale wins by 2+

54%

Moreland City wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Avondale 1+ goals

95%

Avondale 2+ goals

80%

Avondale 3+ goals

57%

Moreland City 1+ goals

69%

Moreland City 2+ goals

33%

Moreland City 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Avondale (draw refunded)

86%

Moreland City (draw refunded)

14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Avondale at home — creates 2.71, concedes 1.02 · 90 matches

Moreland City away — creates 1.31, concedes 3.38 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Avondale attack 2.71 + Moreland City defence 3.38 → ÷2 → 3.04

Moreland City attack 1.31 + Avondale defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Avondale scores more

74%

level

14%

Moreland City scores more

12%

Avondale at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Avondale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff